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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom今日公佈的澳洲1月月度CPI年增2.5%,與前值持平,略低於市場預期的2.6%,使得澳洲通膨率維持在四個月高點。
剔除食品與能源等波動性較大的項目後,核心CPI上升2.9%,創下五個月新高,高於12月的2.7%。與此同時,另一項衡量基礎通膨的修正均值CPI錄得2.8%,亦高於12月的2.7%。

(澳洲月度CPI走勢圖;來源:澳洲統計局)
最新CPI數據並未顯著強化市場對澳洲央行(RBA)降息的預期,然而,由於通膨未顯著加速或放緩,這一結果進一步鞏固了澳洲央行在2月會議上的謹慎立場。
此次CPI結果基本符合澳洲央行的通膨預測軌跡,意味著該央行可能維持觀望態度,繼續評估後續經濟數據與外部風險,再決定貨幣政策方向。
在2月會議上,澳洲央行表示:
目前市場預計,澳洲央行的第二次降息可能將延至2025年年中,並可能取決於4月30日公佈的2025年Q1通膨數據。
澳元兌美元對CPI數據反應有限,因通膨變化不大,未能帶動市場方向。短線來看,澳元走勢仍受美元強弱及市場風險情緒主導。
目前,川普貿易政策的不確定性使澳元、紐元、加元等風險貨幣承壓,限制其上行空間。

(AUD/USD,H4技術分析;來源:TradingView)
從技術面來看,澳元兌美元突破0.6320後仍維持上行趨勢。只要0.6320支撐位保持有效,該貨幣對可能延續漲勢,並受到美元走弱的進一步支撐。
若跌破0.6320或美元強勢反彈,則可能改變當前趨勢。但在此之前,澳元兌美元短期內或仍有望測試0.6400的關鍵壓力區。
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