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追蹤美元兌六種主要貨幣表現的美元指數上漲0.2%,至101.21。週五,美國公佈的數據顯示,8月份的就業增長低於預期,顯示出勞動力市場正在逐步放緩。在此前7月份的增長下調至8.9萬後,8月份的非農就業人數增加了14.2萬,低於預期的16.4萬。而8月份平均每小時工資環比上漲了0.4%,高於預期的0.3%,因此數據呈現出喜憂參半的狀態。

(美國非農就業變化圖表,來源:Forex Factory)

(美國平均每小時工資環比變化, 來源:Forex Factory)
在就業數據發佈後,美元最初對大多數主要貨幣走軟,但隨後迅速反彈並轉爲上漲。這一反應是由於投資者對市場的不確定性,因爲這些數據介於可以支持25個基點或50個基點降息的理由之間。根據LSEG的數據,交易員現在預計美聯儲在9月17日至18日的會議上有31%的可能性將政策利率從當前的5.25%至5.50%區間下調至4.75%至5%的區間。
雖然9月份大幅降息50個基點的可能性仍然較低,但週五發佈的數據明確顯示出勞動力市場基本面的明顯惡化,增加了未來幾個月至少一次大規模降息的預期。此外,美聯儲官員在週五表示,他們準備在即將到來的會議上開始一系列降息,並指出勞動力市場正在放緩,若不進行政策調整,情況可能會進一步惡化。
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