Comprehensive AUD/USD Analysis for September 21, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 21st September 2023.

Key Takeaways

Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy: Key to understanding this dynamic currency pair is the recent decision by the Federal Reserve.

In September, they opted to halt interest rate hikes. Notably, the dot plot still indicates the potential for rate increases later in the year.

Looking ahead, the monetary policy for the following year leans towards a more hawkish stance, with the likelihood of a shift from 5 interest rate cuts to just 2.

These developments have bolstered the US dollar, placing non-US currencies at a short-term disadvantage.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Understanding the technical aspects of AUD/USD is paramount for making informed trading decisions. Here, we provide an exhaustive analysis of the charts, offering a comprehensive view of the current scenario.

AUD/USD Daily Chart Analysis

( Daily chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The daily chart reveals a noteworthy pin bar formation in the Australian dollar against the US dollar, following contact with the 33-day moving average.

This development carries significance, particularly given the robust position of the US dollar, which may exert further downward pressure on the exchange rate.

Analyzing the AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

(4-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Structurally, the market has formed a platform corrective wave, indicating a probability of the ongoing downward trend.

This insight is invaluable for anticipating market dynamics and making well-informed trading decisions.

Ultima Markets Pivot Indicator

(1-hour chart of AUD/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Ultima Markets MT4’s pivot indicator places the central price for the day at 0.64657. To assist your trading strategies, we outline bullish and bearish scenarios:

Bullish above 0.64657, targeting 0.64926 as the first objective and 0.65377 as the second.

Bearish below 0.64657, with the initial target set at 0.64216 and the subsequent target at 0.63949.

Conclusion

Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and it is basically a certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, since the Federal Reserve will also release its latest Summary of Economic Predictions(SEP), the dot plot is the focus of the market’s attention.  

The most debated question right now is whether the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year, and whether the monetary policy in 2024 will change the stance taken in June and a more conservative interest rate path will be adopted. These all affect the direction of the U.S. dollar index. If the Federal Reserve changes its stance on interest rate cuts in 2024, the U.S. dollar index will fall significantly. Otherwise, the U.S. dollar index will further break through the high point. 

Technically, although the stochastic oscillator has crossed upward on the daily chart, the exchange rate has always been suppressed by the 5-day moving average, and the market is more likely to form a consolidation range. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The candle bar yesterday was a pin bar, so the structure today is more important. If it breaks through yesterday’s high, the market’s rebound space will further look closer to the 200-day moving average; if a large physical candle bar closes today, the exchange rate may fall further. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, after the market hit the resistance area composed of the 65-day moving average and the 33-day moving average, the stochastic oscillator began to cross downward. Structurally, the EURUSD has formed a relatively clear rising flag-shaped consolidation area, and there is a certain probability that the short trend will continue after falling below it. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

If you look at the 1-hour chart structure, you will find it is clearer. As the stochastic oscillator remains in oversold territory, the Asian session may remain consolidated. You need to wait patiently for the price to fall below yesterday’s low and the lower edge of the flag channel, and then switch to a smaller cycle to look for intraday entry opportunities.

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is 1.06908. 

Bullish above 1.06908, first target 1.07063, second target 1.07334 

Bearish below 1.06908, first target 1.06635, second target 1.06477 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, there has been a large divergence between China’s domestic gold prices and international gold prices recently, but the bullish drive for domestic gold is mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency and the impact of restrictions on gold imports. It is difficult for international gold prices to be driven by this, but as the monetary policies of various countries come to an end, in line with expectations of falling inflation and economic downturn, international gold prices have certain upward momentum. At present, the market still needs a stimulus to allow gold prices to start a long-term bull trend again. 

Technically, the cross of the stochastic oscillator on the gold daily chart has been established, suggesting the arrival of a bullish trend. 

( Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has ushered in a rebound trend since it hit the 200-day moving average last Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the top is about to hit the downward trend line, and the remaining rebound space is relatively narrow. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that potential gold bulls may be blocked. However, judging from the chart, after the market hit the 200-period moving average, the large entity of candle bar broke through the consolidation range since last Friday, and there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue in the Asian session.

 (1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1930.16. 

Bullish above 1930.16, the first target is 1937.62, and the second target is 1941.74 

Bearish below 1930.16, first target 1925.98, second target 1918.40 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on USD/CAD today. 

Fundamentally, the continued rise in oil prices this week has driven market demand for the Canadian dollar and promoted the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. This has also made the implementation of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy more difficult to a certain extent. In the short term, oil prices affect the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar. However, as Canada’s real per capita GDP shrank year-on-year in the second quarter, the unemployment rate began to rise in May, and coupled with the continued drag on mortgage loan renewals, Canada’s price level may go downward. Therefore, if there are no unexpected changes in supply and demand in the crude oil market, it may be difficult to change the Bank of Canada’s stance of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October meeting.

Technically, the downward trend line on the weekly chart of USD/CAD effectively prevents the exchange rate from rising further. After encountering resistance last week, it has entered a downward trend this week. However, the stochastic oscillator has a clear short signal, and we need to wait for the final closing today. 

(Weekly chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has started an upward trend since hitting the 200-week moving average in mid-August. Based on the complete five-wave structure of the entire upward trend, the current decline is temporarily judged to be an adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. After sufficient adjustment, the Canadian dollar may further depreciate. 

(Daily chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, the rate has reached a very critical support position against the Canadian dollar. The market finally retreated after the stochastic oscillator signaled a double divergence. At present, it has fallen to near the 33-day moving average. The clear top structure means that the current support position is a strong resistance area, and bulls may usher in a “counterattack” in this area during the day. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the oscillator also sent out a bottom divergence signal yesterday, and the market is likely to consolidate or rebound in the short term. If the market breaks through 1.35173 during the Asian session, traders can focus on rebound trading opportunities during the day. The first target is around the red 65 moving average. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.35173. 

Bullish above 1.35173, the first target is 1.35422, the second target is 1.35789 

Bearish below 1.35173, first target 1.34816, second target 1.34570 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, Traders will pay more attention to European Central Bank interest rate decision tonight. As the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%, the latest PMI data also showed that economic activity in the service industry and manufacturing industry shrank intensified in August. The sluggish economy coupled with high inflation and the haze of stagflation make interest rate decision of the European Central Bank full of suspense. If the European Central Bank chooses to pause interest rate hikes for the first time in this year,  without additional hawkish comments, the euro may fall further against the dollar. 

Technically, the euro’s short trend has temporarily gained the upper hand on daily chart. The 200-day moving average has been exceeded, the exchange rate is completely below the 200-day moving average, and the 33-day moving average and the 65-day moving average have also formed a dead cross downward. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

It is worth noting that when the short-term moving average group is close to the 200-day moving average, the market is likely to fluctuate. A complete short trend requires waiting for the short-term moving average group to fall below the 200-day moving average as well. Therefore, although the market started to rise this week, it is currently judged to be a rebound, and the rebound is weak. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the overlap between 1.07665 and the 65-period moving average is a strong resistance area, and the market failed to break through twice. Before the market completely rises above this resistance, the power of shorts will always be slightly stronger than that of bulls. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the flag-shaped area is still in progress. For trading opportunities, traders need to wait for the signal of the stochastic oscillator, or the market falls below the previous low. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.07351. 

Bullish above 1.07351, first target 1.07595, second target 1.07893 

Bearish below 1.07351, first target is 1.07056, second target is 1.06813 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on Brent Oil today. 

Fundamentally, with OPEC and EIA predicting that production cuts will tighten the market in the coming months, Brent crude oil has finally returned to above $90. The International Energy Agency will also release its monthly report today, which is expected to provide more clues to market conditions. The market focuses on whether the report also emphasizes that crude oil production will tighten supply for the rest of this year. 

Technically, the stochastic oscillation in daily chart has once again risen with a golden cross, indicating the arrival of bulls. The moving average group also raised their heads to support the market’s further upward trend. 

( Daily chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

There is currently no moving average suppression above crude oil, and there is little resistance for bulls. Although the current signal of the stochastic oscillator occurs in the overbought area, judging from the chart, even if the market declines again, it will still have the support of the moving average group. 

(1-hour chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour period, crude oil finally broke through resistance and moved upward yesterday after oscillating for nearly 5 trading days. At present, the stochastic oscillator crosses downwards, and the market has a potential adjustment probability in the Asian market. Priority is given to the resistance level for breakthroughs. After waiting for the stochastic oscillator to cross again, traders can pay attention to the long entry opportunities. 

(1-hour chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 91.892. 

Bullish above 91.892, first target 93.001, second target 93.733 

Bearish below 91.892, first target is 91.128, second target is 89.995 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on GBP/USD today. 

Fundamentally, UK is to release its latest August unemployment data on Tuesday. The previous PMI final value data for the manufacturing industry confirmed a downward trend, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month. If the job market shows weakness as well, although inflationary pressure decreases, the outlook for the UK economy may be interpreted as sluggish by the market. 

Technically, it can be observed from the weekly chart of the pound that although the random volatility indicator is still in a downward trend, the market is still trapped in the volatility range of the moving average group. 

( Weekly chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 5-week moving average suppressed the rebound in the exchange rate, while the 33-week and 65-week moving averages supported further downward movements in the market. There is still a possibility of further volatility in the market this week. 

(Daily chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The short forces on the copper daily chart temporarily have the upper hand. The stochastic oscillator crosses downwards. Since the downward trend since early August has been a downward motive wave, there is a certain probability that the recent decline will continue the extended downward trend. 

(1-hour chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, yesterday’s rebound in the market led to a random volatility indicator sending out a bullish signal, but due to yesterday’s K line being only a cross star, the upward momentum of the rebound may be limited. Even if the rebound continues, it is still necessary to conservatively look towards the resistance 1.25675. 

(1-hour chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price on that day is 1.25065, 

Bullish above 1.25065, with the first target of 1.25511 and the second target of 1.25930 

Bearish below 1.25065, with first target 1.24647 and second target 1.24209 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on Copper today. 

Fundamentally, after the release of employment data and PMI data, metals are still under pressure due to potential secondary inflation risks in the United States. On the supply side, according to the latest statistics from the London Metal Exchange, copper inventories increased by 3,150 tons. The increase in inventories means that market demand has not expanded. These short-term news still did not lead to a significant decline in copper prices, suggesting that short-term copper still has room for long-term gains after digesting the market news. 

Technically, copper prices are once again close to the 200-week moving average on a weekly basis, and the market showed signs of resistance and rebound in the first two times. 

(Weekly chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 65-week moving average continues to suppress the upper rebound space of copper prices. Pay attention to whether the final closing price of the market today on Friday can effectively break the 200-week moving average. The market deserves to focus on the short trend next week.

(Daily chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The short forces on the copper daily cycle temporarily have the upper hand. The stochastic oscillator crosses downwards. Since the downward trend since early August has been a downward motive wave, there is a certain probability that the recent decline will continue the extended downward trend. 

(1-hour chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the intraday 1-hour period, the stochastic oscillator has not entered the overbought area for the time being, and the market is still likely to be a mess. Even if the Asian market is currently falling, we need to wait for the short signal of the stochastic oscillator indicator to be confirmed, and then wait for the breakthrough of the low before we can focus on intraday short trading opportunities.

(1-hour chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the pivot price of the day is 3.7334. 

Bullish above 3.7334, first target 3.7575, second target 3.7862 

Bearish below 3.7334, first target 3.7047, second target 3.6805. 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, yesterday the United States released ISM data on the service industry, just like the market outlook shared on Monday. The Fed is currently looking for data support. Consumption is one of the three economic carriages in the United States. The good performance of the ISM service industry PMI will greatly stimulate the bullish trend of the US dollar. The PMI data unexpectedly strengthened in August to 54.5, reflecting sustained strength in consumer demand and the overall economy and strengthening hopes that the United States can avoid recession. It also brings potential signs that inflation will still rise, and the dollar will maintain a certain bullish trend until the data is digested this week. 

Technically, the gold finally fell below the 33-day and 7-day moving average yesterday, and the market’s short trend is relatively clear. 

(Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The stochastic oscillator also sent a short signal, and the market on the daily chart has a probability of going back to the moving average lines during the Asian session. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, after the market peaked and fell below the neckline this week, the moving average lines subsequently made a dead cross which is kind of short signal. It is worth noting that the stochastic oscillator currently indicates that the market is about to bottom out, and there is a certain probability of rebound or consolidation. 

(1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the pivot of the day was 1919.46. 

Bullish above 1919.46, the first target is 1923.54, and the second target is 1933.25 

Bearish below 1919.46, the first target is 1909.75, the second target is 1905.56 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any damage or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on AUD/JPY.

Fundamentally speaking, Japan’s inflation has not declined, which increases the probability of the Bank of Japan’s future tightening policy. After a long-term depreciation, the yen has space for a short-term rebound. AUD/JPY has less room for arbitrage than USD/JPY. With strong USD, please watch out for AUD/JPY bear.

Technically speaking, the AUD/JPY daily stochastic oscillator shows a dead cross, falling below the 50 median line.

(Golden daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

The exchange rate began to decline after falling below the 65- day moving average. It is worth noting that before the short-term moving average crosses again, the market has a high probability of touching the 240 -day moving average and rising again.

(AUD/JPY in 1 -hour period, Ultima Markets MT4)

In 1-hour period, the bearish trend is obvious, and the exchange has fallen below the 2400 -period moving average. However, there is a certain probability that it will find support and rebound there. You may wait for short entry here.

(AUD/JPY in 1 -hour period, Ultima Markets MT4)

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price is 93.489,

Bullish above 93.489, the first target is 93.759, and the second target 94.272.

Bearish below 93.489, the first target is 92.987, and the second target is 92.706.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.