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周二,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.02%,至42,924.89点,标准普尔500指数下跌0.05%,至5,851.19点,而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.11%,至20,383.65点。标准普尔500指数和道指因受到工业、材料和公用事业类股票下跌的压力,在波动交易中收低。同时,纳斯达克则因投资者消化了美国各行业公司业绩而收高。

(标准普尔500指数日线图,来源:Trading View)

(道琼斯工业平均指数日线图,来源:Trading View)
此次市场波动主要受即将到来的美国大选和利率削减预期的不确定性推动。随着特朗普赢得大选的几率提高,市场也开始计入更高的通胀预期,因为他的核心政策议程比哈里斯的政策框架更具通胀性。
此外,根据CME的Fed Watch工具,市场目前预计美联储在11月会议上有89.6%的可能性会降息25个基点,另有10.4%的可能性维持利率不变。而在一个月前,市场已完全计入至少降息25个基点的预期,并预计有50.4%的可能性会降息50个基点。
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