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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom美国股指在周一终结九连涨走势,投资者重新评估前总统川普最新关税言论的影响。与此同时,黄金等避险资产大幅上涨,预示着在本周关键政策事件前,市场风险厌恶情绪可能回归。
周末,特朗提议对外国电影征收100%关税,此举打压了市场情绪,令奈飞(Netflix)和派拉蒙环球(Paramount Global)等娱乐类股票承压。虽然这一提议对整体经济的直接影响有限,但它重新点燃了市场对特朗普整体贸易政策立场的担忧,也削弱了近期市场对其将采取更温和贸易态度的乐观情绪。
与此同时,美国最新经济数据显示信号不一。4月ISM服务业PMI意外上升至51.6,较3月的50.8反弹,摆脱九个月低点。但其中就业分项指标连续第二个月萎缩,引发投资者对劳动力市场基本面的疑虑。

美国ISM服务业就业分项指数;来源:ISM | Trading Economics
除了贸易紧张局势升温外,即将召开的美联储政策会议也充满不确定性,尤其是在中美贸易谈判未见实质性进展的背景下。
尽管中美双方都表达出愿意继续对话的意愿,但重大障碍依旧存在。持续的互不信任与谨慎的外交态度令前景仍然不明朗,也加剧了市场在美联储会议前的观望情绪。
市场普遍预期美联储将在5月会议上维持利率不变,投资者将密切关注未来可能降息的时间点及节奏,尤其是6月或7月是否可能启动首次降息。然而,随着贸易风险再度升温,市场正在下调对近期宽松政策的预期,认为美联储可能继续维持此前的鹰派基调。
Ultima Market 高级分析师 Shawn 表示:“这种立场可能会压制投资者信心,并对美股构成压力,尤其是在当前风险偏好复苏仍较脆弱的情况下。”
美国股市的标杆——标普500指数目前正遇到关键技术阻力区,与200日移动均线重合。该水平历史上一直是重要的市场拐点,而目前未能有效突破,表明市场空头情绪依然存在。

标普500(SP500+)日线图分析;来源:Ultima Market MT5
考虑到近期风险厌恶情绪的升温与持续的宏观不确定性,标普500可能面临新的抛压。若空头动能加剧,而接下来的经济数据或美联储政策沟通进一步打压市场信心,标普500可能开启新一轮下跌。
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