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周三,美国劳工统计局公布,消费者价格指数(CPI)连续第四个月上涨0.2%,与路透社调查的经济学家预期一致。按年率计算,10月份CPI同比上涨2.6%,高于9月份的2.4%,也符合市场预测。报告发布后,美元指数上涨0.49%,收于106.48。

(美国CPI同比和核心CPI同比图表,来源:LSEG)

(DXY日线价格图表,来源:Trading View)
CPI数据,特别是12个月通胀率的上升,表明尽管市场普遍预期美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点,但持续的高通胀可能会促使美联储在2025年重新评估其宽松步伐。自9月份以来,美联储已累计降息一个百分点。
报告发布后,根据CME集团的FedWatch工具,交易员对12月份降息25个基点的概率预期上升至82%,高于周一的58.7%。尽管部分美联储官员态度更为谨慎,明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利在接受彭博电视采访时表示,他有信心通胀正处于下行轨道,并指出CPI数据证实了这一趋势。
然而,重大不确定性依然存在,特别是在选举后可能发生的政策变动下。市场正在对未来政策方向做出大量假设,但在未来一到两年内的实际情况仍然未知。
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