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英国央行周四将利率维持在5.0%,货币政策委员会以8-1的投票结果决定保持利率不变,超出了市场预期的7-2的投票结果。唯一反对的是外部成员Swati Dhingra,她支持进一步下调四分之一百分点的利率,延续此前英国央行上月进行了自2020年以来的首次降息。此利率决定推动了英镑升至自2022年3月以来的最高水平,略高于1.3300美元,而公告前英镑约为1.3266美元。

(英镑兑美元日线价格图表,来源:Trading View)
英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利保持更加谨慎的态度,指出工资增长依然高企令人不安,政策制定者对于长期通胀压力的减缓速度存在分歧。他强调了保持低通胀的重要性,警告不要过快或过度降息。贝利随后表示对利率未来的进一步下降感到乐观,但强调英国央行首先需要更多关于价格压力缓解的明确证据。
此外,英国央行预计,到年底通胀将升至约2.5%,高于最近的2.2%数据,但低于上个月预测的2.75%。在周四的决定后,投资者不再完全预期到2024年底前会有两次降息,但仍预计到明年6月会有四到五次四分之一百分点的降息。相比之下,市场预计美国将进行大约七次类似的降息,形成了英国央行降息速度会慢于美联储的共识。
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