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周四,英镑在英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利发表言论后出现大幅下跌。贝利表示,如果通胀继续缓解,央行可能采取更加“激进”的降息举措。这导致英镑下跌1.08%,收盘于1.3123美元,创下六个月以来的最大单日跌幅。

(英镑兑美元日线图,来源:Trading View)
贝利对生活成本压力的缓解表示乐观,但警告称鉴于油价飙升的潜在风险,央行正在密切关注中东局势的发展,而市场则将贝利的言论解读为进一步降息的信号。尽管英镑本周早些时候已经大幅抛售,短期内进一步下跌可能有限,但贝利的言论给英镑的复苏增添了额外阻力。
目前通胀率为2.2%,略高于央行的2%目标。然而,投资者担心中东地缘政治紧张局势升级,若以色列与伊朗之间的冲突升级,油价可能升至每桶100美元的水平,这种情况可能会重新点燃通胀压力。
英国央行自疫情以来首次降息是在8月份,当时将基准利率从5.25%下调至5%。尽管9月维持利率不变,贝利暗示,如果通胀趋势持续下降,未来可能会进一步降息。大多数投资者现在预计,英国央行将在11月的下次政策会议上再降息25个基点至4.75%,市场在贝利最近的讲话后已经完全反映了这一预期。
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