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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom自4月2日宣布“对等关税”以来,美元已大幅下跌逾4%。这一下跌反映出投资者情绪发生重大转变,资本正从美国资产流出,转向欧洲和亚洲市场。
特朗普政府实施对等关税的决定引发了市场对美国经济前景的担忧。市场的即时反应是谨慎观望,投资者开始质疑美国金融市场的长期稳定性。此次关税针对欧盟、日本等传统盟友,引发了外交摩擦,并遭到多方批评。
这种地缘政治风险的上升削弱了市场对美国经济领导力的信任,引发明显的资本外流。
美国资产,尤其是美国国债,近期遭遇明显抛售,投资者转而寻找更安全或更稳定的替代品。这一轮抛售推高了国债收益率,显示市场风险厌恶情绪上升,以及对美国金融工具的需求下降。
尽管3月通胀数据显示出积极迹象,美联储的货币政策依然保持谨慎。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)表示,美国距离2%的通胀目标仍有“一段较长的距离”,暗示短期内不会收紧政策。
根据CME FedWatch工具,目前市场预计到2025年底将有2到3次降息,高于此前的1至2次。这种预期的变化反映出市场对经济增长风险的担忧正在加剧。

(CME FedWatch 2025年降息概率图;来源:CME Group)
随着市场对美国资产的信心持续减弱,对美联储进一步宽松的预期正在增强,这进一步打压了美元。上周,美元跌至三年来的最低点,跌破关键心理关口100。

(USDX+ ,美元指数,日线图;来源:Ultima Market MT5)
目前美元在这一关键水平附近震荡,在美国经济政策与全球贸易紧张局势持续不明朗的背景下,美元未来面临较大压力。
从技术面来看,只要美元指数(USDX)维持在101.80以下,整体看跌趋势可能延续,暗示美元仍有下行空间。
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