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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom周一,尽管川普总统语气有所缓和并声称美中正在进行谈判,但投资者对于美中贸易战降温的前景仍持谨慎态度,美元也因此难以收复此前的主要跌幅。
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周一在接受采访时表示,是否降低关税取决于中国方面,而川普则坚持认为谈判取得了进展,并称他已与中国国家主席习近平进行了交谈。来自美国官员的混乱表态,加上中国方面否认相关说法,进一步加剧了贸易谈判的不确定性。
尽管上周美元小幅反弹,但围绕贸易战降温前景的不确定性继续对美元施加压力,周一美元进一步走软。
与此同时,作为第二大交易货币,欧元受益于美元的疲软,2025年以来已经大幅上涨,自1月初的低点累计上涨逾11%,至4月中旬接近1.1500的高位。
虽然上周欧元小幅回调,欧元兑美元徘徊在1.1300附近,但欧元整体依然表现强势。此次升值主要得益于市场对美元信心的减弱(因关税风险上升),以及德国和欧元区扩大财政支出的积极推动。
尽管近期从1.1500的关键心理关口小幅回落,欧元仍稳居三年高位附近。在当前市场格局下,美元可能持续承压,预计欧元有望维持其涨势。

(EURUSD,日线图分析;来源:Ultima Market MT5)
从技术面来看,欧元兑美元成功突破1.1210这一重要阻力位后,只要价格维持在该水平之上,欧元的上涨趋势预计将持续。然而,如果欧元始终未能突破1.1570,可能会出现一段整理盘整期,然后再寻求进一步上行的机会。
另一方面,若欧元兑美元回落至1.1210以下,则可能意味着多头动能减弱,或引发更深层次的回调。
目前,投资者的焦点已转向本周即将公布的美国非农就业和劳动力市场数据。
如果数据显示劳动力市场明显放缓,可能引发市场对美国经济的担忧,进一步打压美元、提振欧元,推动欧元继续上行。相反,如果就业数据表现强劲,则可能促使欧元回落至1.1210以下水平。
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