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周三,在备受期待的周五就业数据发布之前,ADP全国就业报告显示9月美国私营部门新增就业人数超出预期,推动美元上涨。上月私营部门新增就业人数为14.3万,8月经上调后的数据为10.3万,超过了预期的12万。受此影响,美元指数上涨0.39%,收于101.60,创三周新高。

(美元指数日线图,来源:Trading View)
更强劲的经济数据,加上美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周一发表的更为鹰派的言论,直接提振了美元。这一变化使得交易员减少了对美联储下次会议上降息50个基点的预期。而市场情绪发生了微妙的变化,导致对美国激进降息的担忧减弱,反而更多地关注开始转向其他地区。
此外,里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金周三表示,上月的50个基点降息是对当前经济状况与政策利率不匹配的承认,但不应被视为美联储已结束与通胀斗争的信号。据CME集团的美联储观察工具显示,交易员目前预计美联储在11月6日至7日会议上降息50个基点的概率为35%,低于一周前的57%。
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